NYC Mayoral Race: A Recess Bell Study Guide
- Liam F.
- Jun 24
- 12 min read
Updated: Jul 3
The New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary is today. Although it doesn’t include the incumbent candidate, Mayor Eric Adams, who is running as an Independent, the winner of the Democratic primary will likely be the city’s next and 111th mayor.
Unfortunately, the process of elimination is a bit tougher in this election. But maybe that’s a good thing! New York City uses ranked-choice voting, something first introduced as a bill over fifteen years ago and got its first use in the mayoral race back in 2021. You can rank up to five candidates, with #1 being your top pick.
All top choices are counted. If no one earns at least 50% of the vote, the count continues. At the end of each round, the last placed candidate is eliminated. Anyone who ranked that person first will now have their second vote count as their first.
That process continues until someone earns more than 50% of the vote. Confusing? A bit – but good thing we’re not in charge of counting.
It took two weeks for the 2021 primary to be called for Adams, despite a couple of “snafus,” Adams was the top choice of about 32% of voters, the most among any candidate and appeared on more than half of all ballots.
Adams went on to defeat Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa and since then, Mayor Swag’s tenure has been an interesting one to say the least. His campaign focused on crime and public safety and as a former cop, state senator, and Brooklyn borough president, the experience seemed to be there.
But then came the scandals, starting with his Fort Lee apartment and something called Fridgegate? Then there was Fishgate, but these seemingly innocent scandals were a subtle foreshadowing of what was to come.
He was slapped with federal corruption charges, then claims of quid pro quo when those charges were dropped, the city seems ready for new leadership.
That “new” leadership could be one in the form of a disgraced former governor! …or a thirty-three year old Democratic Socialist! Other possibilities include a recently arrested accountant from Missouri, a former classmate of the current mayor who swears they’re not related. Oh and Paperboy Love Prince.
Translation: only in New York.
None may have the swagger or aura that the current mayor possesses, but maybe the prospect of free buses or a “changed” former governor outweighs any piercings they don’t have. (Cuomo would like a word)
Who am I kidding, it’s Zohran or Cuomo’s race. And just because the primary is today, doesn’t mean those two won’t stay in the news until Election Day.
The Field
A total of nine candidates are in the Democratic primary, but, like any bloated field, only a couple will make it out of the spring. Meet Zohran and Andrew.
Comptroller Brad Lander and Council Speaker Adrienne Adams will likely round out the final four candidates in the ranked-choice system, but they’re still polling in the single digits. Scott Stringer is lurking in the shadows behind Adams, but his path seems to be the toughest.
Here are the candidates we can pretty much bet the house on not winning the primary:
(Sorry) Paperboy Love Prince
Anyone else who claims to be a candidate
Nothing against any of those candidates, but it's the truth. Michael Blake has some incredible national experience as an Obama Administration political director and a former Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee. Zelnor Myrie believes in more job apprenticeships in the trades and moving past the four-year degree spell that hiring managers are under.
But in an election where only a few issues really matter to the voting public–affordability, public safety, Trump, it’s about how you separate yourself from the pack.
Cuomo’s name recognition and moderate platform alone give him a free 25 points, the rest wil come from campaigning, which he hasn’t done a ton of. Mamdani on the other hand has made up significant ground by posting furiously on social media to reach the young voters, but most importantly by getting out there and standing on business.
Once the votes are tallied and a nominee is chosen, don’t assume the movie is over. Third parties, potential appeals or lawsuits, maybe even – Eric Adams playing a more significant role in the November election than previously thought.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves — at least not yet. How did we get here?
The Mamdani Model
In an era where the powers in the American political sphere struggle to reach young voters, it was only right for it to be one of the "yutes" to come out and shape the future of campaigning.
Launching his campaign last fall, Mamdani was polling at 6% in December, an afterthought behind Cuomo, Adams, Lander, even Jessica Ramos and Scott Stringer.
Through January and even into February, where an Emerson College poll had him at 1%. A Mayor Mamdani seemed maybe more unlikely than sticking with Mayor Adams.
A February 10th poll conducted by Unite NY showed Mamdani at 5%, being knocked out of the RCV process in round 4. By mid-March, his strategy began to pay off. The next available polling information came from HSG where Mamdani was at 34% in the final round.
There was obviously a long way to go, with Cuomo’s margin of victory still at thirty or forty points, but as April and May came and went Mamdani narrowed the lead to a couple of points. One poll had Mamdani with a lead over Cuomo, but this didn’t take the RCV process into account.
At the end of the day, ranked-choice voting could help Mamdani more than it would Cuomo. There’s a well documented ‘Don’t Rank Cuomo’ campaign, but it’s most popular among progressives.
The progressive movement in America is growing, but they can probably still be considered the loud minority. Even in NYC, only 18% aligns with the Mamdani adjacent progressivism. However, most polls show Mamdani gaining more ground in later rounds.
And now with some notable cross-endorsements, the path is there for Mamdani to take advantage of the new system. But the truth remains that many NYC voters feel that a more centrist approach is necessary. It's no secret that NYC shifted considerably toward Trump between 2020 and 2024, although Mamdani has made it a point to speak to those groups that shifted the most.
Promises like free buses and rent freezes are attractive, but what do these cost in the end? What happens if these things don’t happen?
The mayor doesn’t control the bus system, that’s the MTA. Mamdani was instrumental in the 2023 pilot program that saw one free bus route in each borough. According to the MTA’s own reporting, weekday ridership was up 30%, assaults on operators down 39% and a 12% increase in new ridership.
But the MTA refused to extend the pilot last summer, saying that the results did not meet the “initial intent”. So as much as Mamdani promises the buses will be free – and fast, which is another issue, it is up to the MTA only.
The cost is another issue. Most estimates say it will cost $700 million annually, to make up for lost fare revenue. Now, this can be done, as long as NYC’s top earners are taxed 2% more annually on their income.
Any New Yorker making more than $1 million per year will be hit with that new tax. It’s estimated to bring in a total of $10 billion per year which covers the free buses, but would also help Mamdani keep some of his other promises, of no-cost childcare and city-run grocery stores.
There’s just one problem. Albany still has to approve and change the tax code, even though it would be a NYC only tax. New York City currently has a 3.9% tax rate on anyone making over $1M, a 2% increase would bring it close to 6%, and that tax is in addition to the state income tax rate of 9.65% and a federal rate of 37%.
In the grand scheme of things a 2% increase of a tax rate already near 50% isn’t a whole lot, but it’s a hike, something Albany and Gov. Kathy Hochul must make possible at the state level.
Mamdani holds zero control over the tax rates, even in his own city, so not only must he fulfill the promise of utilizing the money if elected, there’s a good chance Albany doesn’t even let Mamdani get those funds.
What if, and this is a pretty big if, Albany refuses to listen to the mayor of New York (wouldn’t be the first time) and does nothing? What is the contingency plan for Mamdani?
Only hours before the primary, there doesn’t seem to be one. Zohran has done an incredible job clawing up from single digit polling numbers, to now leading Cuomo in Emerson’s latest poll, but we’ve seen this song and dance before, big promises made: no promises delivered.
So in the very likely possibility Albany keeps the tax plans unchanged, especially at a time where Governor Hochul cut income taxes, and seems to be dead set on not wanting to “lose any more people to Palm Beach.”
Is it all “sour grapes”? Maybe – but is there a chance that Zohran becomes another “Superstar Loser” in the Democratic party? Maybe.
However, the campaign model of tactical social media use, an intense canvassing operation, walking the length of Manhattan and everything under the sun, Zohran has done, works.
Win or lose, he’s given the Democratic party a new playbook. And one thing is for certain: you do not mess with the Zohran.
The Cuomo Cash Cow
If you ever thought about running for mayor of New York City, your best bet might be to:
Be the governor, then resign in disgrace over sexual harassment allegations, wait a few years for the current mayor to make a fool of himself and get arrested, then enter the race.
But Cuomo’s ground is quickly being lost to a thirty-something year old socialist. The machine that has collectively seen over twenty years of power over New York State’s Executive branch, appointments to the Clinton administration and the vanity naming of a three mile long bridge over the Hudson River (it’ll always be the Tappan Zee) might be coming to a final halt.
Andrew Cuomo is doing absolutely everything in his power to win this race. Some say too much. Each candidate gets to raise up to $8 million through the normal campaign committee. This can come from individuals who live in NYC or those who “do business” with the city although there are far stricter rules for those donors. (No LLCs, no corporations) This allows no PACs or other partnerships and is strictly based on the individual campaign.
Cuomo couldn’t max out his campaign dollars because he was fined $622K for “improperly coordinating” with an “independent expenditure.” Basically a Super PAC, except not a national committee. A.K.A. – Illegal. So what do you do when you can’t raise the same amount as your opponents? You call up your billionaire friends! Duh!
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg has “donated” $8.3 million to Cuomo’s campaign. Math wizards know that’s $300K more than the city allows candidates to raise for their campaigns.
Bloomberg donated to Cuomo’s “Fix the City” PAC, which has raised a total of $24M and has spent $16M. That makes it the largest Super PAC in NYC history, a third of which was contributed by Wal Street’s Mayor. The PAC has spent over $10 million on ads in favor of Cuomo, and almost $6M on ads that oppose Zohran Mamdani alone.
The Love Gov also got some love from landlords — $2.5 million worth! And if you were wondering where the rest of the Fix The City funds came from… $1M from DoorDash, $250k each from billionaires Bill Ackman, John B. Hess, a collective $500k from the family that brought us Estée Lauder.
Even Billy Joel donated $50K. (Which one hopes is because of the fluid in his brain and not his own rationale)
Unlike what happened during the 2024 presidential election, I don’t think Michael Bloomberg is trying to buy a spot in Cuomo’s administration. Buuuut, it does make one question what Bloomberg is doing spending so much on the election.
Consider why these individuals (or DoorDash) would spend so much on a campaign. For the donor, the best case scenario is influence. One can only speculate what kind of influence Bloomie is going for, but at the very least, if Cuomo wins the election, Michael Bloomberg played a significant role. That is influence.
Now what if Cuomo loses the primary? A lot is pointing to that being a real possibility. Ever-improving polling numbers, record early voter numbers point to a more Mamdani-heavy vote pre-election day. For example, Brooklyn saw a 118% increase in early votes compared to 2021.
It's easy to fall under the assumption that early voters are usually more to the left than election day voters, but today is set to be hot.
Like, really, really hot.
The forecasted high of 98° would set a record dating back to 1888, “real-feels” would be in the hundreds and as one meteorologist put it, “like walking through a swimming pool.”
Could the early voting numbers be a result of people dodging the heat? Yes, which can dispel the idea that a Mamdani-backed crowd came out in droves to vote early.
But the Emerson Poll can fire back with 61% of the participants in the poll being 50 or older. Mamdani won that simulation. What’s there to say that the older population is turning to Mamdani too?
Andrew Cuomo has a plan for that – or Eric Adams had a plan first, but Cuomo is just, in Adams’ words, “duplicating” what he’s doing.
The Third Option
"He's obviously, all he's doing is looking at Eric Adams' playbook, you know, and I hope you guys are gonna be as critical of him now that he's duplicating what I'm doing. You know, you know, he follows my housing plans. He follows my mental health plans," - Eric Adams comment reported by CBS 2 NY.
Cuomo created the “Fight and Deliver” party just in case he were to fall to Mamdani in the primary. It sets in stone his name will be on the ballot in November regardless of what happens in June. Cuomo’s cash machine can carry him through the summer and beyond regardless of the primary results. Will it hurt not having the “Democrat” next to his name? Yes, but Andrew Cuomo is not every politician. The former governor’s name will be all over TV, radio, mailings and every other advertising medium possible.
It also gives him the opportunity to let Mamdani lose his own race, more time to spread the word about the real possibility that Mamdani’s promises go unfulfilled due to Albany’s hold over the tax code.
It makes you wonder who the real burden is on, the Mamdani honeymoon phase could come to a screeching halt if Cuomo does enough to show voters that Mamdani can’t change the tax laws without Albany. He has the ability to do that under the third party line.
Mamdani, on the other hand, also has a path to a third party backing. He already has the endorsement of the New York Working Families Party, which still would have to choose to put Mamdani on their party line in November.
So there's a very good chance that we are just entering the season of campaign ads at a nauseating frequency and that the Primary is not the end – just a benchmark.
To Wrap
This is a real turning point in American politics. And not a “tUrNiNg pOiNt” that we as Americans are always seemingly faced with on a regular basis peddled by the media, but a true opportunity for change in how this nation votes.
The ranked-choice voting system has the true potential to help us move away from the two party system. While the RCV system will not be used in the November general election, continued success and a Mayor Mamdani can help change that down the line.
Cross endorsements, like we’ve seen among the candidates, help end the stigma of the “evil other option” us Americans have become so used to. It incentivizes more focus on policies compared to demonizing other candidates. If America’s biggest city runs a successful RCV experiment, it gives the system merit.
The other and more obvious change is that a Democratic Socialist would have a real shot of being mayor of the financial capital of the world. A giant leap for the Progressive Democrats who have spent the last eight months being blamed for the loss in the 2024 election.
Mamdani has tried to end the narrative of the Democratic party being too liberal, instead he’s focusing on what Trump and Republicans did in the lead-up to the election: affordability.
Even if Mamdani wins the primary, wins the general election and takes office, he still has to follow through with his promises. A stagnant four years with even a bit of adversity could be a tough hole for progressives to climb out of. If the poster child does nothing? Killer.
But there’s a real problem inside of the Democratic Party as of right now. Who should the leader of the party be? What should the primary focus be on? Where should they focus on making change? When will the tides turn? Why are more and more centrists and middle class Americans aligning more with a wannabe fascist than the Democratic party?
Maybe Mamdani has an answer. But unfortunately, a long summer is ahead of us, filled with more ads, more social media posts and more thinking about what the next direction for the center of the universe should be.
A step back into the old Democratic Party? Or forward into the new school of American politics?
Cast your votes.
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