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Writer's pictureJoshua U.

2024 NFL Season: Halfway Home | Contenders & Pretenders

When I was younger and very much into video games, one of my go-to games was Madden NFL. I always found a way to get my hands on that game before each season started.


The BEST edition of Madden all-time. I won't be taking arguments.

As an adult, however: I've come to realize that the practice of purchasing the game every single year is… kinda dumb. Like, it’s the same game with the same controls and the same gameplay each year — you’re essentially just paying $60 every summer for a roster update. I was just so drawn to all of the star players on new teams, and the big-name rookies joining the game for the first time.


The first three selections of the 2023 NFL Draft were all quarterbacks — The Chicago Bears took “generational" prospect Caleb Williams first overall, the Washington Commanders took defending Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels second, and the New England Patriots selected athletic whiz kid Drake Maye third.


If you expand the scope to the Draft’s first 12 picks, there were three more quarterbacks selected: Michael Penix Jr. to the Falcons at eighth overall, J.J. McCarthy to the Vikings at tenth, and Bo Nix to the Broncos at twelfth — making it a record-tying six quarterbacks taken in the first round, an event not seen since 1983.


Penix Jr. hasn’t started a game as of yet, as the Falcons have him in “watch and learn” mode behind incumbent QB Kirk Cousins. McCarthy was vying for the Vikings’ starting spot before unfortunately tearing his meniscus in preseason. Nix has been starting since the opening week of the season, producing mixed results.


But as far as the rookie QBs that carry undisputed star potential -- Daniels, Williams, and Maye are the guys. And Week 10 saw a matchup between the latter two.


The most interesting thing about each year’s draft to me is the variance of expectation from one rookie to another.


I mentioned Williams’ “generational” label earlier — he showcased raw arm talent and athletic ability during his collegiate career at Oklahoma & USC, winning a Heisman Trophy along the way. That, in combination with the… well, pathetic history of the Bears’ franchise at the quarterback position meant that Williams was quite literally entering Chicago as the savior. The Prince That Was Promised, if you will.


At times, you’ll see even the most skilled of rookie quarterbacks asked to do what the aforementioned Michael Penix Jr. is currently doing down in Atlanta: hold a clipboard for the entirety of Year 1. There was no chance of that happening in Chicago with Caleb, though. Not with that “generational” word floating around him.


If you can call rookie QB clipboard duty a “luxury”, then Drake Maye had been afforded that luxury in New England to start the season, sitting behind Jacoby Brissett for five games. The Patriots were 1-4 and turned to Maye to try and give the club a spark. The Patriots lost Maye’s debut to the Texans to drop to 1-5, but Maye impressed throughout the game with some real “big boy" throws.


The Bears through 6 games had their fans titillated and mesmerized, fantasizing not just about what the future could hold with Williams at the helm, but about what the team could accomplish this current season as well.

Chicago was 4-2, coming off a dominant showing in London vs the Jacksonville Jaguars in which Williams passed for 4 touchdowns, capping off a three-game stretch in which Williams posted a passer rating of over 106. Williams tossed 7 TDs vs just one interception over those three games. The Bears were heading into their bye on cloud nine — higher, even.


What’s taken place in Chicago since the bye has been comical, if you’re into some dark & twisted humor.


From ecstacy to misery -- Caleb Williams' rookie season has hit the wall following another bad showing in Week 10.

The Bears have now lost three consecutive games, kicked off by an inexplicable Hail Mary surrendered vs the Commanders in which cornerback Tyrique Stevenson started that final play of the game taunting Commanders fans in the crowd, only to allow his assignment to catch the miraculous, game-winning touchdown.


Following that, the team traveled to Arizona and got absolutely bludgeoned by the Cardinals.


The most disgusting loss had to have been Sunday’s home loss to Maye and the Patriots in which Caleb and the Bears could only muster three (3) points. Williams completed just 16 of 30 passes for 120 yards and no touchdowns in the loss and got outplayed by Maye (184 yds, TD, INT).


There’s a lot of blame to go around in the Windy City right now, as evidenced by the team's firing of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on Tuesday.



You can fault their front office for choosing not to do a complete coaching staff reset coinciding with the arrival of Williams. You can point to their decision to draft a WR (Rome Odunze) with the 9th overall pick instead of bolstering an offensive line that has largely stunk this season.


\Whichever route you choose to go with that, it seems futile in the grand scheme of the Bears’ prospects this season. At 4-2, Bears fans were right to at least dream about making the playoffs. Now? The team’s struggles right now are one thing, but their schedule for the rest of the season is hellacious — a huge part of that being that they have ALL 6 divisional games left to play against the very best division in football. Not great!


What has been great has been Jayden Daniels’ rookie season in Washington. The Commanders entered Sunday with a 7-2 (!!) record led by Daniels and new head coach Dan Quinn.


Washington is undoubtedly one of the NFL’s best & cutest feel-good stories, led by an infusion of energy all throughout the organization, from the new, flashy quarterback, to the fiery head coach, to the keen new ownership group and front office. At 7-2, though; it’s time to wonder aloud which teams are actual contenders and which ones… just aren’t.


A victorious Jayden Daniels runs off the field following the Commanders' dramatic "Hail Mary" victory vs Chicago in Week 8.

After Sunday, the Commanders, while being 7-0 vs teams under .500, dropped to 0-3 vs teams over .500. The Pittsburgh Steelers eked out a 1-pt win in Landover, largely due to their veteran poise.


Mike Tomlin and T.J. Watt are two of the last people I’d ever want to play in a big game, but even with having a future Hall-of-Fame coach and generational edge rusher, the Steelers still haven’t been legitimately feared in a minute as an actual contender due to the team’s house of horrors at the quarterback position since Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement in 2020.


We all knew entering the season that things would be better for Pittsburgh in that regard, though — although that wasn’t saying a whole lot.


Still, the team’s additions of QBs Justin Fields and Russell Wilson were a marked improvement over the slop that had started at the position throughout the past 3 seasons.


Wilson — the Super Bowl winning veteran — was named the starting QB in training camp, but missed the first chunk of this season due to a faulty calf. Fields stepped in and helped lead the team to a 4-2 record, doing a lot of the good things he did in Chicago before his Caleb Williams-caused exile this offseason.


When Wilson got healthy, though, Tomlin had a tough decision to make. Stick with the young guy that’s gotten you off to a great start, or go to the grizzled veteran who could potentially raise the ceiling even higher, at the risk of disrupting locker room chemistry?


Records as Pittsburgh Steelers' starting QB: Justin Fields 4-2, Russell Wilson 3-0.

Decisions like these show why Tomlin is one of the best of the best and has been since taking over the reins in Pittsburgh in 2007. Causing some criticism, he went with Wilson ahead of the Steelers’ big Sunday Night Football test vs the New York Jets in Week 7. Three consecutive wins since that point have turned those initial critics into celebrants of Tomlin.


The NFL, sports, life — it’s all a matter of circumstance sometimes. A lot of times in life, really talented, smart, and capable people don’t have the opportunity to showcase their abilities to the fullest because they’re in a less-than-satisfactory situation. Which is exactly how I would describe Russell Wilson’s career post-Seattle.


For as prosperous a tenure Russell Wilson enjoyed with the Seahawks, his time with the Denver Broncos was equally strenuous.


Russ’ first year in Denver was marked by a historically-bad coaching staff and a nasty 5-12 record. Wilson and then-head coach Nathaniel Hackett never came close to being to being on the same page as Wilson recorded what was by far his worst season in the NFL.


The following season saw former Super Bowl winning coach Sean Payton arrive in Denver, and while Wilson’s stats improved, his chemistry with the head coach somehow got worse. Payton never appeared to like Wilson; like on a personal level. It was weird. It was weird enough that Denver decided to eat a historic amount of dead cap to say sayonara to Wilson in the offseason.


You’d be surprised how much of a difference you can make for yourself when you simply go where you’re wanted. Where you’re appreicated. Mike Tomlin has fostered a beautiful culture of accountability over his 17 years as Steelers coach, and he and Russ appear to be a match made in heaven. I mean, just look how happy and loose Russ looks here:



The Steelers are now 7-2, atop the always-competitive AFC North. Well, when you exclude the Cleveland Browns. The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, though? There’s never a shortage of fireworks when those two teams play, and that’s especially the case when they play each other just as they did last Thursday.


On October 6th, Baltimore and Cincinnati played a high-scoring thriller of a game, tallying 79 combined points as the Ravens rallied back from 10 points down in the 4th quarter to win 41-38 in OT. Both quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, combined for 740 yards and 9 TD passes in that one. Pretty good. Surely these two wouldn’t come close to approaching those statistics in their next matchup...



The Bengals scored 72 points combined in their matchups with the Ravens this season and lost both games. That’s hard to pull off.


That’s the frustrating thing about this season’s Bengals, though. For as great as Joe Burrow has been this season; for as dominant as Ja’Marr Chase has been (while trying to get paid a historic bag this summer) — they are somehow a 4 win, 6 loss football team, on the outskirts of the AFC playoff picture.


We’ve seen Cincy go on spectacular end-of-season runs before, especially evidenced by their dramatic run to the Super Bowl in 2021. Their upcoming schedule isn’t too daunting — they’ll definitely need to win next week at Los Angeles vs the Chargers, though, who are 6-3 and have won three straight under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. After this week, they’ll have two games vs the aforementioned Steelers to play, needing to find a way to win both to make it into the dance.


The Ravens by virtue of that big Thursday night win sit at 7-3. This season’s Baltimore Ravens are a classic case of “good news, bad news” if you’re a fan of the team.


The good news? The addition of Derrick Henry to an offensive backfield already featuring the incomparable Lamar Jackson has vaulted Baltimore’s offense up into conundrum territory. Baltimore leads NFL offenses in the following categories:


  • points scored per game (31.8)

  • yards per game (440.2)

  • rush yards per game (182.6)

  • yards per play (7.1)

  • and Red Zone TD percentage (76.7%)


The stats outlined above, in combination with Baltimore winning 7 of its first 10 games, are the reasons why Lamar Jackson looks like a shoe-in to win his 3rd MVP award, which would place him in rarified air at the quarterback position historically.

The bad news?


It appears that the departure of defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald (Head Coach, Seattle Seahawks) has sunk the Ravens’ defense to surprising lows. They’ve been specifically terrible in stopping the pass (last in the NFL, 294.9 ypg allowed).


Remarkably, the Ravens also field the best rushing defense in the NFL (73 ypg allowed). But until they figure out a way to stop people through the air, their Super Bowl ceiling is going to be lower than the AFC’s other contenders.


Can Lamar Jackson overcome a poor Ravens' pass defense to win his 3rd MVP and capture his first Super Bowl?

The Buffalo Bills are in a similar space with Baltimore in that they’ve been excellent for years but haven’t been able to break through to the Super Bowl yet. Might things be different for the now 8-2, AFC East-leading Bills this year, though? Anybody that said that Josh Allen’s stats & performance would dip following the departure of Stefon Diggs now looks like a fool (there were a lot of you, I remember).


Allen has looked as good as he’s ever looked this season, limiting his turnovers while being the same Superman-like talent he’s always been. Buffalo’s problem has been their defense — ranking in the middle of the pack in nearly every single metric. They’ve got 7 more games to right the ship there, but they are getting healthier on that side of the ball, so we’ll see how much their prospects change in that regard.


And this coming week, they’ll be linking up with a familiar foe.


What more can be said about the Kansas City Chiefs? After Sunday’s serendipitous win at home vs Denver, Mahomes & co have now won 15 consecutive games dating back to last season — that includes their 4 postseason wins on the way to their 2nd consecutive title and their 3rd in 5 seasons.



Are they ‘three-peat’ material? While a 9-0 record would certainly speak to that, Kansas City hasn’t looked overly dominant at really any point this season. They’ve won their games by an average of just over 6 points-per, and the eye test matches that statistic. Just this first half of the season alone, the Chiefs have won by virtue of:


  • Week 1: A Baltimore game-tying TD on opening night wiped out by Isaiah Likely’s toe just landing on the back line of the end zone,


  • Week 2: A turnover on downs on their final drive overturned by a late pass interference flag on the Bengals defense, leading to a game-winning Chiefs FG,


  • Week 4: A failed 4th down rush by Atlanta leading to a turnover on downs and a Chiefs victory.


  • Week 9: After the Buccaneers choose not to go for two after a late TD in regulation, the Chiefs win the coin toss, and go down the field to win the game.


  • Week 10: The Broncos’ potential game-winning FG gets blocked as time expires.


Yes, those are some very gratuitous outcomes. But after last season, where the Chiefs looked extremely sloppy and disconnected to close the regular season, only to completely correct matters and win an improbable Super Bowl — are we really going to count this team out? I know I’m not about to. If they can hold on to the AFC’s #1 seed, you’d be wise to not bet against them either.


Their “short game” approach is the NFL’s best — leading the league in first downs converted AND time-of-possession. As long as Andy Reid is the coach, Patrick Mahomes is the QB, and Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ first option in the passing game, they will always be convinced that they’ll make all of the plays necessary to win when the stakes are at their highest. They’ve got Kareem Hunt and DeAndre Hopkins both showing flashes of their 2017 selves, and that defense is still spectacular.


While Reid, Mahomes, and Kelce get the bulk of the credit, don't forget about defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo either -- the Chiefs defense has shown itself dominant once again in 2024.

The Houston Texans are the AFC’s 4th division leader. Following their season last year in which they stunned the NFL world with a 10-7 record, AFC South division title and Wild Card Round playoff victory in blowout fashion vs the Cleveland Browns, in both head coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud’s rookie seasons, expectations were rightfully raised entering 2024.


While they lead the AFC South by a healthy margin through 10 weeks of football, that’s largely due to just how toilet water the other 3 teams in the division have been. When you stack up the Texans’ resume vs the other AFC contenders’, I would say there’s definitely some drop-off that occurs.


With that being said, Houston had a golden opportunity for a primetime statement win on Sunday Night Football vs the Detroit Lions they forced Jared Goff into 5 (!) interceptions and held an 16-point lead at halftime. Inconceivably, the Texans didn’t score a single point in the second half, getting shut-out 19-0 on the way to a 26-23 loss. Texans drop to 6-4, Lions improve to 8-1.



The Lions in the Dan Campbell era have truly reversed the narrative. Detroit have long been the hapless “lovable losers” of the NFL, punctuated by a winless 0-16 season in 2008. Now? They have transformed into the new bullies on the block, with a pounding rushing attack and a hard-hitting defense.


I know the Chiefs are an unbeaten 9-0, but the team that has checked off the most “Super Bowl contender” boxes to this point have been the Lions. They’ve won 5 straight games. They lead the NFL in point differential. They’re also a remarkable 5-0 on the road so far this year.


Their heartbreaking loss in last season’s NFC Title Game at San Francisco appears to have lit an “unfinished business” type of fire underneath the club, and there’s no signs that would point to that slowing down at all in the second half of the season.


Speaking of San Francisco, the 49ers have had a season defined by… injury. No other way to frame it. Star wideout Brandon Aiyuk was placed on injured reserve on Oct. 23rd following a season-ending ACL tear, and superstar running back Christian McCaffrey JUST made his season debut on Sunday after missing the first 8 games of the year due to Achilles tendinopathy in BOTH legs.


Impressively, the team is 5-4 despite all of this, and with the return of McCaffrey, they hope that last week’s gritty road victory vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will serve as a springboard towards real contention in the NFC. The Niners have been uncharacteristically poor in the red zone this season, but the return of CMC should aid those woes — and quickly, should McCaffrey stay healthy.


The Niners hope that the return of CMC can get the team back to the top of the NFC by season's end.

The Bucs have also been wrecked by the injury bug this season, as wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have each missed multiple weeks (Godwin is done for the season). A season that started with great promise in Tampa has now been completely derailed following 5 losses in their last 6 games.


2 of those losses were handed to them by their division rival, the Atlanta Falcons.


The Falcons are a lot like this season’s Texans — a 6-4, division-leading team has gone on quite a wild ride to get to that point. Watching this season’s Falcons (as has been the case with many Falcons teams throughout their Super Bowl-less history) are a lot like being in a toxic relationship. They’re beautifully put together & flashy. They’ve got an edge to them that kinda turns you on.


But the second you work your way up to trusting them? They do something idiotic like lose to the New Orleans Saints -- a team that had previously lost 7 straight games and had just sent their head coach packing.


Yes, the Falcons have just gotten Rizz’d.





I find the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers — the 2nd and 3rd place teams in the NFC North sporting 7-2 & 6-3 records respectively — to be in similar boats at this point in the year: two teams that have been both wildly impressive at times but also wildly disappointing at other times. As is the case with the vast majority of NFL teams, these two squads will only go as far as their quarterbacks will take them.


Vikings QB Sam Darnold and Packers QB Jordan Love are tied for the league lead in interceptions at 10 apiece, and a lot of said picks from both guys have been straight up head-scratching. Keep a close eye on these two men in particular over the remainder of the season. If either guy or both guys can figure out a way to cut the turnovers down, their teams have a shot to make a run in the NFC.


How about the NFC West-leading Arizona Cardinals? They put a spanking on the visiting New York Jets on Sunday, winning 31-6 to improve to 6-4. Kyler Murray is healthy, his weapons are hooping, and that defense led by second-year head coach Jonathan Gannon is as opportunistic as ever.



The Cardinals in a lot of ways are everything the Jets were supposed to be. The Jets have just as much, if not more, talent than Arizona. So why are the Cardinals riding high while the Jets have crash-landed to a 3-7 record?


Culture.


The Jets culture was exposed as insidious when the firing of former head coach Robert Saleh came down after a 2-3 start. Aaron Rodgers never once appeared to like Saleh or even enjoy his company on the sideline. That move thrust defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich into the interim role, and “Brick” has appeared to be overwhelmed by the sudden & drastic increase in responsibility, as the Jets have gone 1-4 under his leadership.


The Jets should serve as an example & lesson to every team in the NFL that will be looking to rebuild a lackluster situation this offseason: Try not to hand too much power to the inmates within the asylum.


To keep it blunt, Aaron Rodgers was basically handed to keys to the franchise when he was traded there in 2023. The Jets at that time were an upstart, energetic young team that was ONLY missing a quarterback to take them over the hump. It’s clear now that a 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers was not the answer on the field nor off the field.


Jets fans had unusually high hopes for the team following 4x MVP Aaron Rodgers' arrival to the team. With a 3-7 record this season, Rodgers' Jets tenure has been an unmitigated disaster thus far.

The Jets will now have to win out to have any chance at getting into the playoffs (and we know that ain’t happening). Once they inevitably get eliminated from playoff contention, it will mark 14 consecutive seasons without a single postseason appearance. That’s embarrassing beyond measure, and the ownership group led by longtime CEO Woody Johnson need to take some hard looks in the mirror before the franchise fades back into obscurity once again (if they ever really left in the first place).


Looking ahead to Week 11: tonight features a tasty matchup between the two teams atop the NFC East: the 7-3 Commanders & the 7-2 Philadelphia Eagles.


After an uneven beginning to the season for Philly, many were speculating about head coach Nick Sirianni’s future with the club. He had already been put on notice by Philadelphia media and fans after the Eagles’ unconscionable collapse to close last season out.


Fast-forward 5 wins and one insane Saquon Barkley hurdle later? The Eagles are 7-2 with a great chance to put even more distance between themselves and Washington for the NFCE lead.



It should be a great one tonight, and an entertaining Week 11 as a whole. The matchups this week include:


  • Ravens (7-3) @ Steelers (7-2), 1pm

  • Packers (6-3) @ Bears (4-5), 1pm

  • Chiefs (9-0) @ Bills (8-2), 4:25pm

  • Bengals (4-6) @ Chargers (6-3), SNF


As we dive headfirst into the stretch run of the 2024 season tonight, here are my tiers & rankings for ALL 32 teams through 10 weeks:


Contenders:

  • Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)

  • Detroit Lions (8-1)

  • Buffalo Bills (8-2)

  • Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)

  • Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)

  • Baltimore Ravens (7-3)

  • Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)


Pretenders:

  • Minnesota Vikings (7-2)

  • Green Bay Packers (7-3)

  • Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

  • Houston Texans (6-4)

  • San Francisco 49ers (5-4)

  • Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)


Young, But Not Ready:

  • Washington Commanders (7-3)

  • Arizona Cardinals (6-4)


Painfully Mid:

  • Denver Broncos (5-5)

  • Los Angeles Rams (4-5)

  • Seattle Seahawks (4-5)

  • Chicago Bears (4-5)

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)

  • Indianapolis Colts (4-6)

  • Miami Dolphins (3-6)

  • New York Jets (3-7)


At Least You Showed Up:

  • Dallas Cowboys (3-6)

  • New Orleans Saints (3-7)

  • Carolina Panthers (3-7)

  • New England Patriots (3-7)

  • Cleveland Browns (2-7)

  • Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)

  • Tennessee Titans (2-7)

  • Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)

  • New York Giants (2-8)


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